Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14795

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14794, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14795
    30 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC

    UBE2V2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBE2V2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4176ed1fe38cf794

    discovery+0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    replication+0.69 p=0.038 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    86f6fae88d311c55641a8e67…
    follows 298dc1f1ad14…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14795: UBE2V2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18), 95% CI -0.03 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.44 (p 0.070, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.50 (p 0.034, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.36 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.064, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2V2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.