Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14793

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14792, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14793
    30 Oct 2026, 03:56 UTC

    GPRASP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPRASP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaf193c4e56169c09

    discovery+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.181 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8ad4917d85138d553f72d049…
    follows 8bda1176f474…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14793: GPRASP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPRASP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.