Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14776

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.790). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14775, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14776
    30 Oct 2026, 03:32 UTC

    IFT57

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIFT57 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredef297b269d7fc2fd

    discovery+0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.927 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.790)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    10a66c2b7e72efa1093b8a89…
    follows b04163755900…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14776: IFT57 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.20, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IFT57 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.