Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14768

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.402). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14767, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14768
    30 Oct 2026, 03:20 UTC

    MBL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMBL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfea7c77b0a535a87

    discovery-0.32 p=0.402 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.476 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.402)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7ded5cf238067b2012d9e1c0…
    follows 3bbebff16a8d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14768: MBL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.49. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.800, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.840, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.16, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MBL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.