Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14766

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.172). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14765, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14766
    30 Oct 2026, 03:18 UTC

    KRT222

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKRT222 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered916b2e93011e570d

    discovery-0.50 p=0.172 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.50, p 0.172)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7e04d3ca636338ff217c1731…
    follows 004f4f49192d…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14766: KRT222 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.11, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KRT222 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.