Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14757

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.66, p 0.051). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14756, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14757
    30 Oct 2026, 03:04 UTC

    MAGI3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAGI3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf8c2cc8a212e1e7d

    discovery+0.66 p=0.051 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.66, p 0.051)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f295a17c8c30c220721f44fd…
    follows e3100e6270bf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14757: MAGI3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.48 (p 0.044, n 18), 95% CI +0.02 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.052, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.49 (p 0.041, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.63, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAGI3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.