Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14753

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.197). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14752, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14753
    30 Oct 2026, 02:58 UTC

    MYH9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMYH9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede159094c2d6406cf

    discovery-0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.775 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.197)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8bde1e8b009f14491ffcc5a5…
    follows 75b4854e7540…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14753: MYH9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.049, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.71 (p 0.0010, n 18) vs -0.32 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYH9 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MYH9 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 1.6e-4)