Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14751

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.820). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14750, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14751
    30 Oct 2026, 02:56 UTC

    ATE1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATE1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1b069865ccce3137

    discovery+0.09 p=0.820 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.689 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.09, p 0.820)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c3a72f0fe8fda3c98c0e5a55…
    follows 0e3105fb6886…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14751: ATE1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.10, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.949, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATE1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.