Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14749

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.635). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14748, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14749
    30 Oct 2026, 02:53 UTC

    SF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered554d1fabb0e8abfe

    discovery-0.18 p=0.635 n=9

    replication-0.03 p=0.947 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.635)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f1edd1a1fc534df7cb977fd4…
    follows d84f23d98961…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14749: SF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.15, sign flips 9; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.