Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14745

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.230). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14744, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14745
    30 Oct 2026, 02:47 UTC

    CLEC4G

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCLEC4G in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8961c1d49de8ef2b

    discovery-0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    replication-0.27 p=0.487 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.230)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0e70880756a131e9c01d3b7c…
    follows 9605417a049b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14745: CLEC4G in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CLEC4G in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.