Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14741

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14740, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14741
    30 Oct 2026, 02:42 UTC

    HRK

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHRK in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd213e3a16e27511c

    discovery-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.635 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6fef8d94b2d463c6b6837c9f…
    follows 0bf3b8199d8f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14741: HRK in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HRK in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.