Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14736

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.668). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14735, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14736
    30 Oct 2026, 02:34 UTC

    RAB1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRAB1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc2de8f82b9f9669d

    discovery-0.17 p=0.668 n=9

    replication-0.45 p=0.227 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.668)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5a2271b3419afc5e095b335f…
    follows bd12e147eaa2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14736: RAB1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.310, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.32 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAB1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.