Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14701

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.825). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14700, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14701
    30 Oct 2026, 02:28 UTC

    UBE2E1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBE2E1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredde193de53be29dac

    discovery-0.09 p=0.825 n=9

    replication+0.76 p=0.018 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.825)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3b9d25f4cf58154820afe159…
    follows 953f99add41f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14701: UBE2E1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18), 95% CI +0.01 to +0.77. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.61, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.48 (p 0.046, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBE2E1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.