Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14697

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14696, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14697
    30 Oct 2026, 02:23 UTC

    CHMP5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCHMP5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7ff154ffb97b6c5d

    discovery+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication+0.10 p=0.805 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0161463c714e17d573e7e4d8…
    follows a8cb77e517f4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14697: CHMP5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.10 (p 0.696, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CHMP5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.