Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14687

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.607). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14686, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14687
    30 Oct 2026, 02:09 UTC

    SPAG1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSPAG1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede0f91982d95d11c2

    discovery+0.20 p=0.607 n=9

    replication+0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.607)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d2c44e12f82bb709396eb9f3…
    follows d2e7526a68de…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14687: SPAG1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.06 (p 0.807, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPAG1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.