Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14685

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.554). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14684, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14685
    30 Oct 2026, 02:06 UTC

    PCSK5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPCSK5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered376553ab7edf9e37

    discovery-0.23 p=0.554 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.787 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.554)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e1aed4d67086aef9d1742321…
    follows 756a8e3bac43…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14685: PCSK5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.976, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.19 to +0.08, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PCSK5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.