Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14678

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14677, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14678
    30 Oct 2026, 01:57 UTC

    CFD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCFD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredabd20d182872f972

    discovery-0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c6e929ef29abd1a91285c3da…
    follows 7519626ebe85…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14678: CFD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18), 95% CI -0.48 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.11, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CFD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.