Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14670

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.665). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14669, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14670
    30 Oct 2026, 01:46 UTC

    FAM13A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFAM13A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4ea0c6e49f4e2ef9

    discovery-0.17 p=0.665 n=9

    replication+0.23 p=0.555 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.17, p 0.665)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ade4e9b73edb22082da2c3af…
    follows d8615d196ddf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14670: FAM13A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.23, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: +0.63 (p 0.0055, n 18) vs +0.10 in dopamine neurons. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAM13A in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up FAM13A · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.70 p 0.013 (needs p < 1.6e-4)