Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14664

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.807). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14663, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14664
    30 Oct 2026, 01:38 UTC

    RCN2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRCN2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered63ba346c10d95692

    discovery+0.10 p=0.807 n=9

    replication-0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.807)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b63370e3dae7148934f9dc23…
    follows 7b6cd6d78898…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14664: RCN2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.08, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RCN2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.