Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14646

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.724). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14645, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14646
    30 Oct 2026, 01:13 UTC

    LONRF2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLONRF2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb9b1507797a9ede6

    discovery+0.14 p=0.724 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.724)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7758907c69eaea439777aabe…
    follows 61fcb3f8d563…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14646: LONRF2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.273, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.17 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LONRF2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.