Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14644

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14643, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14644
    30 Oct 2026, 01:10 UTC

    ABLIM2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionABLIM2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddacf293f39b1755a

    discovery-0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e81ec3e86cfeac9a306d4c69…
    follows c1b25e96fc6b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14644: ABLIM2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ABLIM2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.