Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14642

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14641, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14642
    30 Oct 2026, 01:08 UTC

    ARHGDIB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARHGDIB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered22d5c94bd77f23f7

    discovery-0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    99a8d19323efb083f0b0a7c4…
    follows 0df0ccdab939…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14642: ARHGDIB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGDIB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.