Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14633

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.400). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14632, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14633
    30 Oct 2026, 00:56 UTC

    JPH3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionJPH3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered494a2f7b6df93f87

    discovery+0.32 p=0.400 n=9

    replication-0.87 p=0.0025 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.32, p 0.400)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2e37bd1e4075f3abfd2b8545…
    follows 64e2775a710d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14633: JPH3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.04. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.013, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.62 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for JPH3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.