Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14627

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.251). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14626, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14627
    30 Oct 2026, 00:48 UTC

    ALDH4A1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionALDH4A1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered41d4615fd017b2b1

    discovery-0.43 p=0.251 n=9

    replication+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.43, p 0.251)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    64058c2dad7c9eb979897e33…
    follows 1d40020b91ff…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14627: ALDH4A1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.153, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ALDH4A1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.