Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14616

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.815). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14615, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14616
    30 Oct 2026, 00:34 UTC

    TNIK

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionTNIK in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede7654188900f5ea6

    discovery-0.09 p=0.815 n=9

    replication+0.50 p=0.174 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.815)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0774ccea4442c3a03fe38c05…
    follows 372ddb0097bf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14616: TNIK in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TNIK in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.