Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14614

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.928). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14613, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14614
    30 Oct 2026, 00:32 UTC

    SELENOH

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSELENOH in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb6e717f8977a8ff7

    discovery-0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    replication-0.09 p=0.815 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.928)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8eb0fe175fe551f4ee2e5cb7…
    follows 1ba9510800cf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14614: SELENOH in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.13, sign flips 11; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SELENOH in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.