Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14612

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.62, p 0.073). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14611, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14612
    30 Oct 2026, 00:29 UTC

    TAOK2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTAOK2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4a6baa00665305e4

    discovery-0.62 p=0.073 n=9

    replication-0.38 p=0.311 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.62, p 0.073)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4c49ca308ad11c64ff37f0fe…
    follows bb35961c6cb5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14612: TAOK2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18), 95% CI -0.77 to -0.01. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.59 (p 0.0099, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.66 (p 0.0030, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.59 (p 0.0096, n 18) vs -0.48 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TAOK2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TAOK2 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.48 p 0.091 (needs p < 1.6e-4)