Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14607

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.909). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14606, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14607
    30 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTC

    AADAT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAADAT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3e4684bbd894e022

    discovery+0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.909)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e7df267ad9828ee0351283d9…
    follows 72b6e0877948…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14607: AADAT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.867, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.12, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AADAT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.