Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14595

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14594, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14595
    30 Oct 2026, 00:07 UTC

    NT5C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNT5C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered97d0bb2daae5876c

    discovery-0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    replication-0.23 p=0.560 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.533)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3e3eb948163762f139153559…
    follows 4805b4fd270c…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14595: NT5C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: +0.70 (p 0.0012, n 18) vs -0.30 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NT5C in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NT5C · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.47 p 0.091 (needs p < 1.6e-4)