Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14582

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14581, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14582
    29 Oct 2026, 23:47 UTC

    RABGAP1L

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRABGAP1L in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered852d4b84473126b4

    discovery+0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    replication+0.24 p=0.534 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fd56851ce3bae4d1e9cef137…
    follows 19fe662da1c3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14582: RABGAP1L in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.579, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.09 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RABGAP1L in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.