Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14578

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.202). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14577, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14578
    29 Oct 2026, 23:41 UTC

    KANK4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKANK4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8966afab554471bd

    discovery-0.47 p=0.202 n=9

    replication-0.67 p=0.050 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.202)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    daf69cb07b07f8c00ed80bc1…
    follows 6e0b76afd806…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14578: KANK4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.153, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.054, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.27, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.153, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KANK4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.