Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14572

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.172). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14571, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14572
    29 Oct 2026, 23:33 UTC

    LRRC49

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLRRC49 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbd75484317ef5801

    discovery+0.50 p=0.172 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.121 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.172)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c4f4b223018f40356c369ec8…
    follows 487769224314…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14572: LRRC49 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.54 (p 0.022, n 18), 95% CI +0.09 to +0.80. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.53 (p 0.023, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.48 to +0.61, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.54 (p 0.022, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRRC49 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.