Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14560

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14559, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14560
    29 Oct 2026, 23:17 UTC

    HSPB6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHSPB6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9f32a2f386c5805f

    discovery-0.55 p=0.123 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0cc7a5e81520e80fa64ac472…
    follows 048d0449a404…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14560: HSPB6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HSPB6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.