Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14558

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.597). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14557, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14558
    29 Oct 2026, 23:14 UTC

    SLC25A28

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC25A28 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcea4c5bdb34dc9f4

    discovery+0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.331 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.597)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7cebcf84d1b9a940e79da422…
    follows 3bd3460dd579…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14558: SLC25A28 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.69 (p 0.0017, n 18) vs -0.17 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC25A28 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up SLC25A28 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.07 p 0.790 (needs p < 1.6e-4)