Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14556

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.177). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14555, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14556
    29 Oct 2026, 23:11 UTC

    SRMS

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSRMS in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3001011f17edd6e2

    discovery-0.49 p=0.177 n=9

    replication-0.57 p=0.108 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.177)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1b74ee1aad56b37ea113c98f…
    follows 25feb42235f3…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14556: SRMS in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.41 (p 0.089, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.015, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.57 to -0.35, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SRMS in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.