Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14550

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14549, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14550
    29 Oct 2026, 23:03 UTC

    HTATIP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHTATIP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9f0eaac0e310b172

    discovery-0.04 p=0.927 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bdbfcc5146c3e80d0856cfde…
    follows e59292d7f070…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14550: HTATIP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.12 to +0.08, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HTATIP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.