Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14540

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.59, p 0.096). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14539, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14540
    29 Oct 2026, 22:49 UTC

    LCE1C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLCE1C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered482c004d5d0acf3e

    discovery+0.59 p=0.096 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.965 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.59, p 0.096)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    57baafb7fb382e089a17ba64…
    follows 6f1dcb85a25f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14540: LCE1C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LCE1C in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.