Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14525

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.70 p 0.035; held-out -0.36 p 0.336). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14524, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14525
    29 Oct 2026, 22:29 UTC

    TANGO2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTANGO2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered78b05323bb75d8cd

    discovery-0.70 p=0.035 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.70 p 0.035; held-out -0.36 p 0.336)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    86f0f296bb2211e6afbf795b…
    follows ed9057af3792…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14525: TANGO2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.54 (p 0.022, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.09. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.54 (p 0.022, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.67 to -0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.54 (p 0.022, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TANGO2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.