Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14523

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.456). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14522, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14523
    29 Oct 2026, 22:26 UTC

    KCNRG

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKCNRG in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered86fff4623c73f150

    discovery-0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    replication+0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.456)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d5c7315ed243b40b071c67a5…
    follows 2e8e444d6be3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14523: KCNRG in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.44. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.07, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KCNRG in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.