Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14507

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.262). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14506, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14507
    29 Oct 2026, 22:04 UTC

    PPDPF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPPDPF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8a2795da4e5e69a3

    discovery-0.42 p=0.262 n=9

    replication+0.03 p=0.929 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.262)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    15aeaccc3f0049a69c0cc11e…
    follows 538d0fde67e2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14507: PPDPF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPDPF in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.