Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14478

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.76 p 0.018; held-out +0.22 p 0.576). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14477, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14478
    29 Oct 2026, 21:26 UTC

    GPAT4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGPAT4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1364f4cc336188ed

    discovery-0.76 p=0.018 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.76 p 0.018; held-out +0.22 p 0.576)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    0033e7eac9badb8e894b6d5e…
    follows 050e3b008470…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14478: GPAT4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.25. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GPAT4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.