Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14465

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.255). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14464, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14465
    29 Oct 2026, 21:09 UTC

    MYO1C

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMYO1C in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5538734a5d591b20

    discovery-0.42 p=0.255 n=9

    replication-0.33 p=0.386 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.255)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2dad853acbf7c41bd9e1540e…
    follows 09a746942713…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14465: MYO1C in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.34 (p 0.161, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.66 (p 0.0029, n 18) vs -0.29 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYO1C in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MYO1C · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.03 p 0.929 (needs p < 1.6e-4)