Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14463

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.457). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14462, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14463
    29 Oct 2026, 21:06 UTC

    LRRC7

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLRRC7 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered79485efa1310dcf2

    discovery+0.29 p=0.457 n=9

    replication+0.23 p=0.551 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.457)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    95dbdcc8d288f7c96b0d1cc4…
    follows 268ad6d3a286…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14463: LRRC7 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.34 (p 0.170, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRRC7 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.