Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14454

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14453, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14454
    29 Oct 2026, 20:53 UTC

    CCDC85B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCDC85B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3b9a9a76a8bd3ccd

    discovery+0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication+0.24 p=0.534 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    460cf77211c5b9da51e21e4e…
    follows c25a198320e9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14454: CCDC85B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.521, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCDC85B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.