Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14450

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.597). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14449, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14450
    29 Oct 2026, 20:47 UTC

    RNF187

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRNF187 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc209ee4c551379b3

    discovery-0.20 p=0.597 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.851 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.597)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    77dafeef7e8f8a941b21d3b3…
    follows 7ec534b8fa71…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14450: RNF187 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.153, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.48 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RNF187 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.