Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14437

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14436, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14437
    29 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC

    AKR1E2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAKR1E2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7e924038f292a280

    discovery-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.362 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a68a1fe7c89eb9b5baa336a8…
    follows d698dad5d86f…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14437: AKR1E2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.179, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AKR1E2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.