Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14425

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.028; held-out -0.10 p 0.803). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14424, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14425
    29 Oct 2026, 20:14 UTC

    GAS6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGAS6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf7e524cc848ab23e

    discovery-0.72 p=0.028 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.803 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.72 p 0.028; held-out -0.10 p 0.803)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    869bca97e059da8bef187490…
    follows 2aa94a1ba206…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14425: GAS6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GAS6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.