Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14421

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14420, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14421
    29 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC

    DHCR24

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDHCR24 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8f28eb2d2e134ae1

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e5be811c7be72cf3e266391e…
    follows 670a8e9ff7c7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14421: DHCR24 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18), 95% CI -0.36 to +0.56. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DHCR24 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.