Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14406

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.046; held-out -0.26 p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14405, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14406
    29 Oct 2026, 19:49 UTC

    ESAM

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionESAM in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc54add340e36f0d2

    discovery-0.68 p=0.046 n=9

    replication-0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.68 p 0.046; held-out -0.26 p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    40a00f7a729fc7430a77c5b6…
    follows eb81c869612d…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14406: ESAM in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18), 95% CI -0.78 to -0.04. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.63 to -0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.035, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ESAM in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.