Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14394

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.499). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14393, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14394
    29 Oct 2026, 19:32 UTC

    ZNF225

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF225 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda9f0b6c961e6c3f8

    discovery-0.26 p=0.499 n=9

    replication+0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.26, p 0.499)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5b72f5d73c4b272b28d2cb4a…
    follows 3a09164faf72…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14394: ZNF225 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.29, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF225 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.